Buy stock
in
Raith
Rovers
Manager’s can often fall into the trap of trying to replace their
departing first team members with like-for-like players. If you’re unable to
hold onto the original, then there is no guarantee the knock-off is going to
avoid any drop off in overall quality. That was why it was refreshing to see
Grant Murray rebuild the team in a completely different way. Last season Raith
were disciplined at centre-back and in centre-midfield and got great help from
the goals of Brian Graham. Elsewhere, they were a bit pedestrian at times and
over-reliant on Hearts’ loanee David Smith to provide the invention when games
bogged down.
Towards the
end of last term that problem was fixed with the acquisition of Joe Cardle. The
Englishman is a top winger in the second tier and can ignite a game at any
time. Raith recovered from a horrible winter period to finish strongly with
Cardle in the side and it was important that they managed to convince him to stick around.
Replacing
the classic goalscorer-playmaker partnership of Brian Graham and Pat
Clarke are Calum Elliot and Gordon Smith. Elliot has proven himself before at
this level to be capable of scoring goals while Smith was harshly done by to be
released from Hearts last season. Both deploy a similar game based on intelligent movement and running into the channels. So even
though he is on the bench for now, expect Greig Spence to get his chance to
shine this campaign.
The
additions of Liam Fox and Keith Moon in the centre are a more dynamic duo and
securing Calum Booth on loan from Hibs gives them an attacking force from
full-back. Expect a play-off finish and greater entertainment value.
Others to
consider
Queen of the
South
They have lost Challenge Cup hero Lee Robinson and top goalscorer Nicky
Clark but Calum Antell and Iain Russell are decent replacements. With those
exceptions they’ve kept together the majority of the squad that completely
destroyed the Second Division and already have an advantage over three fellow
Championship clubs by being a full-time team.
Alloa
Things are going to be a lot harder for the club than the previous two seasons as they enjoyed almost unprecedented success under Paul Hartley. This is definitely their ceiling. They are a small, part-time club and their gaffer, no matter how good he is, will not be able to continue this streak and take them into the Scottish Premiership. At least not for a few years while clubs invest the increase in revenue filtering down from the top division.
Having said all that, the winning mentality so expertly implanted by Hartley should stand them in good stead for this coming year. The confidence enjoyed by the former Hearts midfielder around the club is at complete odds with general supporter consensus of Colin Cameron over at Cowdenbeath. The fact they’ve only really lost Calum Elliot from the promotion winning side will also do them in good stead. Expect them to stay up and Hartley to move on at the season’s end.
Sell stock
in
Dundee
A
combination of their form under John Brown in the Scottish Premiership and the
signings they’ve made pre-season (Peter MacDonald, Willie Dyer, Gavin Rae) have
installed Dundee as heavy favourites for the
Championship crown. They certainly lost some talent (notably Gary Harkins and
John Baird) but in comparison their squad still looks streaks ahead of the
competition. Every other team began the annual ‘trim the budget’ exercise only to
be promised a big wad of cash precipitating down from the top league when it
was too late.
So why sell
Dundee? History, that’s why; on two fronts.
One, teams dropping from the top division have a terrible record of coming straight
back up. In fact, since the first team was relegated from the inaugural SPL
season (1998/99) only one club has gone down and come straight back up
(Inverness CT). That’s one in ten*. Secondly, they performed so well in the
latter half of last season after Brown managed to instil an “us against the
world” mentality in the former whipping boys of the division. At Clyde, when given time to build his own squad, he was a
disaster and clearly
couldn’t handle the pressure.
Dundee supporters must also be wary of the fact that their new manager seems
more fascinated with Rangers than his own club and that there is unease off the
pitch with a potential takeover still going through the motions. Their
favourites tag is deserved because of their squad, but there are too many potential
things that could go wrong.
*It’s only
ten because two years there was no relegation while one club went out of business
(Gretna) and
therefore didn’t have the chance to return.
Others to
consider
Hamilton
Stevie May scored half their
league goals and won’t be returning to the Championship any time soon. Accies
were a poor team until the long-haired striker caught fire and they could well
return to hovering above the relegation zone. James Keatings comes in from
Celtic and could pick up some of the slack while Anthony Andreu was a nice piece
of business from Livingston, but don’t expect
a playoff challenge.
Dumbarton
Nobody expected the turnaround under Ian Murray last season so we can’t be too
surprised if the same occurs over the whole of this campaign and the
part-timers find themselves, incredibly, battling for a playoff position.
However, in Scottish league football, there is only so far you can go with
part-time players. Eventually fitness and focus becomes an issue and were it
not for Dunfermline’s point deduction last
season then the three bottom teams in the Championship would have been the only
three-part time clubs. They’ll may remain in the division but that’s the best
they can hope for.
If you have enjoyed the blogs then you must check out the podcast. The latest episode was called The Fag End (Lower League Preview).