Pre-season
friendlies are a peculiar breed. Supporters are fully aware of their
justification. They are intended to heighten the fitness levels of every player
in the team and little else. Occasionally trialists and new signings will used
such fixtures to endear themselves to the fans. For the established players,
however, it is exclusively an exercise in which to get ones body as close to match fitness
as possible. The result does not matter. So why do fans continually attach
meaning to performances and results from these glorified kick-abouts? Is there a correlation between pre-season matches and full campaign form?
“How could we lose two goals to Ham Kam!”
Maybe it’s
because we’ve been starved of our favourite hobby for two months that we
immediately attach unnecessarily high significance to matches that mean nothing
from a competitive point of view and therefore should care little about the
final result. It could be an extension of the flaw in human nature which is
particularly true of football fans; irrationality and overreaction. For
example, if a team wins three games running the fans are quick to look up the
table at where their finally resting place will surely reach with this sort of
form, seemingly oblivious to the ‘what goes up, must come down’ theory and
completely dismissive of all prior evidence that would tell them otherwise. The
same in reverse is true of fans whose team lose three games in a row and
suddenly believe their beloved club is headed for non-league football.
Whatever the
reason, if we look at the numbers we will find that results in pre-season
friendlies are no great indicators of how a team will perform throughout the
season and we should just treat them for what they are: a dull, if well
meaning, re-introduction before the real football starts.
For the
basis of this study, we’ve chosen two clubs and analysed their pre-season form and their final placings in the league table. We’ve picked these two teams (Celtic and Hearts) mainly because
of the two terrific websites (www.londonhearts.com
and www.thecelticwiki.com) which
make it incredibly easy to locate the data we are looking for. Then we selected
five seasons from each club over the last 20 years. We picked two years where
the team exceeded expectations coming into the campaign, two years where they
missed those expectations and one where their final league position was as
predicted. We wanted to see if there was any trend between pre-season results
and subsequent league form.
In order to
make the data as fair as possible we have included a plus/minus column along
with the record for pre-season games. This is to give a better idea about the
quality of the opposition they are facing. You can win five out of six
pre-season games but it doesn’t immediately generate respect if the opposition
is a bunch of pub-teams. The explanation for the plus/minus chosen is
underneath the data in “notes”.
The win
percentage for both the pre-season and league campaigns are written in to
include draws (which we’ve equated at half a win).
Hearts
1995
Pre Season
record: P6 W3 D2 L1
Win
Percentage: 66%
Plus/Minus:
+1
Notes: The
only real result of note either way was a 5-1 home win over Manchester City.
League win
percentage: 54%
Season: 4th
place, Scottish Cup Final
Expectations:
Exceeded
Conclusion:
A solid pre-season led to a good year for a team that had been tipped to battle
for relegation once more.
2002
Pre Season
record: P4 W1 D1 L2
Win
Percentage: 37.5%
Plus/Minus:
-2
Notes: A
pre-season tour of Finland
sees two loses and a win against teams that should have brought a record around
two wins and a draw under competitive circumstances. A draw at First Division
Falkirk finishes a below average warm-up.
League win
percentage: 59%
Season: 3rd
place
Expectations:
Exceeded
Conclusion:
There was little indication to say Hearts would comfortably take 3rd
after their summer and two consecutive 5th place finishes, although
Mark De Vries did miss most of the pre-season through injury.
2003
Pre Season
record: P8 W3 D1 L4
Win
Percentage: 44%
Plus/Minus:
-3
Notes: Some
dreadful away defeats to Hamilton, Linfield, Ballymena and (still lower league)
Inverness CT.
No plus point for a late 2-2 draw with Sunderland
as the Wearside club were in the First Division at the time. A win over Hibs in
the Festival Cup earns one plus point.
League win
percentage: 64%
Season: 3rd
place
Expectations:
Met
Conclusion:
Hearts are in the third place driving seat from the start and remain there
relatively unchallenged throughout the entire campaign. Night and day compared
to what they offered up in July.
2007
Pre Season
record: P7 W2 D1 L4
Win
Percentage: 36%
Plus/Minus:
-1
Notes:
Three small teams gain victories over the travelling circus who got plus points
for a surprise win over Austria Vienna and a stellar showing in a 3-1 defeat to
Barcelona.
League win
percentage: 46%
Season: 8th
place, managerial merry-go-round
Expectations:
Missed
Conclusion:
A relatively poor pre-season preceded a disaster in the competitive one.
2012
Pre Season
record: P4 W3 D0 L1
Win
percentage: 75%
Plus/Minus:
Par
Notes: Wins
over Rotherham, Raith and Dunfermline were to be expected, the loss at Falkirk was not. Par is probably fair as it is unfair to
expect a win in every match.
League win
percentage: 42%
Season: 10th,
reached League Cup Final
Expectations:
Missed
Conclusion:
The summer confidence did not translate to the terrible league campaign that saw
John McGlynn sacked in February.
Celtic
1997
Pre Season
record: P7 W1 D2 L4
Win
percentage: 29%
Plus/Minus:
-2
Note: Loses
away to a small Belgian club and then Groningen
preceded a greater embarrassment suffered at the hands of Derry City.
Respect was restored with a 2-2 draw with PSV, unlike the 1-1 draw with St
Pats.
League win
percentage: 72%
Season: Won
first title in 10 years
Expectations:
Exceeded
Conclusion:
Fans panicked after the dismal July showings led into Celtic losing their first
two league games of the season. They recovered to deny Rangers ten-in-a-row.
1999
Pre-season
record: P5 W4 D0 L1
Win
percentage: 80%
Plus/Minus:
+1
Note: Three
routine wins against smaller Norwegian clubs, followed by a loss to Leeds but
win over Newcastle
(both EPL at the time). Leeds were just
beginning their run at the top three so there is no minus point for that
defeat.
League win
percentage: 66% (Rangers had 86%)
Season:
Sacked John Barnes and finished a mile behind Rangers
Expectations:
Missed
Conclusion:
The strong showing did not transfer into the league where Barnes was quickly
found to be out of his depth and sacked shortly into the New Year.
2000
Pre-season
record: P5 W2 D1 L2
Win
percentage: 50%
Plus/Minus:
-1
Note: The
only real surprising result was a defeat to small German club Sachsen Leipzig.
The loss to Bordeaux
could be viewed as disappointing but is easily off-set by a win over West Ham.
League win
percentage: 87%
Season: Won
the title at a canter under new manager Martin O’Neill
Expectations:
Exceeded
Conclusion:
There was little to indicate the O’Neill experiment would become an instant
success, running away with the league title and taking the domestic treble.
2005
Pre-season
record: P4 W0 D4 L0
Win
percentage: 50%
Plus/Minus:
-1
Note: Three
0-0 draws in four matches including two which came against Leicester and Leeds (both playing in the Championship at the time). The
winless pre-season completely panicked the Parkhead faithful when they then
lost 5-0 away at Bratislava
and drew their opening game at Motherwell.
League win
percentage: 83%
Season:
Reclaimed league title from Rangers under Gordon Strachan
Expectations:
Met
Conclusion:
In hindsight the fears seem ridiculous as Celtic waltz toward their first title
under Strachan.
2009
Pre-season
record: P6 W3 D1 L2
Win
percentage: 58%
Plus/Minus:
Par
Notes: A
win over Tottenham is offset by defeat to Sunderland while loss to Manchester City is expected.
League win
percentage: 74% (only 66% when Mowbray was sacked)
Season: Tony
Mowbray lost his job in March, lost Scottish Cup semi to Ross County.
Expectations:
Missed
Conclusion:
The former player produces no result like the win over Spurs in competitive
football and lasts just nine months as manager.
The
statistics show that there are few trends to be found, with the exception that
these two clubs are generally poor in the summer. Once competitive football
gets started things can change instantly with Hearts winning four of their
first five league games following a pre-season where they scored -3 on our
plus/minus chart. Celtic’s 1999 win over Newcastle
and the free-spending of the John Barnes/Kenny Dalglish partnership promised
exciting times ahead; instead fans had to suffer through one of the most
embarrassing episodes in recent memory.
Part-time
teams from strange lands can walk all over you, a win against one of the strongest
teams in the world can be earned, but in the end it doesn’t equate success or failure in the upcoming season.