Why Aberdeen Pose More of a Threat to Celtic Than Hearts

Last season we tricked ourselves into thinking there was a title race. Craig Cairns looks at this season’s pretenders.

With Hearts suffering their first defeat of the season and Aberdeen quietly shutting out yet another side at one end while taking chances at the other, the previous weekend has given us an indication of why the Dons are better placed to challenge Celtic this season.

Aberdeen have steadily progressed season-on-season to establish themselves as one of the top sides in the country. Hearts, by contrast, have continued their momentum after an impressive promotion from the Championship last season. Where Derek McInnes has developed an established group of senior players that dominate matches, as well as a string of results that display that dominance, Robbie Neilson is managing in the Premiership for the first time and has not had it all his own way, even though they have come out on top in the vast majority of matches so far.

As both sides are clearly capable of scoring goals, the key difference between the sides is in defence.  Aberdeen have managed four clean sheets from their five league matches and have conceded just once – in the fourth minute at Fir Park, a match they turned around to win 2-1. This allowed Aberdeen to quietly notch up five victories from five while media attention, specifically questions about a title challenge, were directed towards Tynecastle instead.

The one criticism you could make – if you were trying really hard to look for one – is that they are not blowing any teams away. In fact, the only time Aberdeen have scored more than two goals in a match was their away victory over Rijeka. They don’t need to, however, because teams rarely score against them.

Their previous two matches are a perfect example of how far Aberdeen have come. In both they have gone in 0-0 at half-time though remained patient, stuck to their gameplan and eventually unlocked the packed defences they face.

Contrast that with Hearts who have managed two clean sheets from eight matches in all competitions so far this season, conceding 10 goals. Luckily for Neilson, his side have scored an amazing 21 goals across this time, which helped them to seven wins from seven (one of which was an extra-time victory) before defeat at Hamilton. Even in that match they scored twice. Only two of Hearts’ matches this season have ended with less than three goals and both of those ended with two. So far, Hearts matches have averaged a total of just under four goals-per-game.

Hearts face Aberdeen in a few weeks and should be concerned about these numbers, especially the amount of second half goals they are conceding. Seven of the 10 goals Hearts have conceded have come after half-time and, worryingly for the Jambos, Aberdeen have scored seven of their nine league goals after the break.

Aberdeen’s defensive record compared with that of Celtic may also give them cause for optimism. The champions have not recorded a clean sheet in any of their last six matches and have conceded more than a goal in four of those. Since then, they have sold their best centre-half in Virgil van Dijk. Two others have been added in the form of Tyler Blackett and Jozo Šimunović but they may take time to gel with their new teammates. With both of these sides scoring and only one conceding, Aberdeen should fancy their chances on September 12th.

What may work against Aberdeen is their head-to-head record against these sides. They have lost all five of their previous encounters with Celtic – including all four last season. McInnes’s side entered one of those matches with three consecutive wins and clean sheets under their belt and with Celtic wounded from their Champions League exit in Italy a few days before. Celtic won the match 4-0.

And only once have they defeated Hearts in the last 11 attempts. Eleven. Some of those Hearts teams were garbage, most notably their relegation side which took seven points over three matches from Aberdeen – who themselves came within a whisker of finishing second that season. Nevertheless, this is a stronger, stingier Aberdeen with more maturity and backbone than it did back then.

All three of these sides will meet each other before the month is out. This should give us a clearer indication of who, if any, will challenge Celtic for the title this season.

Written by Craig Cairns (@craigcairns001)

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