The honeymoon period is over at Hibs

October 13, 2016

lennon

So much for the afterglow. A month ago, Hibernian FC, the Scottish Cup holders and Championship leaders, were looking to extend their 100% winning run in the league with a home victory against Ayr United.

Hibs had been hamstrung in their previous two campaigns in the second tier by slow starts. They were playing catch-up from the off as first Hearts, then Rangers, swatted aside the competition. This time, it seemed like Hibs might stroll the league in a similar fashion.

With 66 minutes gone at Easter Road against their Ayrshire rivals, things were going to plan. Jason Cummings had scored the only goal, a lovely curling effort from outside the box, and Hibs were on course for 18 points from 18. 1-0. They were about to set a new, all-time record for consecutive wins to start a league season.

Then Marvin Bartley was given a straight red for a challenge on Jamie Adams. Then Conrad Balatoni scored from a corner after slack defending. 1-1. And then Nicky Devlin made it to the by-line and cut the ball back to the six-yard line where Brian Gilmour, unmarked, slotted in the winner for Ayr. 1-2.

Blips happen. Hibs travelled to Queen of the South in a top of the table clash the following week and played out a 0-0 draw. That they’d played out the last half hour a man-down made it seem a reasonable result, despite Lennon’s unhappiness afterwards.

A 1-1 draw at home to Dundee United suggested that a blip was becoming a mini-slump. Another 1-2 reverse to St. Mirren in the Irn Bru Cup last weekend – again at home – merely confirmed it.

For context, Hibs remain second in the Championship table. After eight games, they are only a point behind surprise pace-setters, Queen of the South. They have the best squad in the division by some distance and, in Lennon, have a manager who knows how to wins leagues in Scotland.

But amongst the fans there are justified fears.

The front third is where Lennon directed his annoyance after the Queens game. “My attacking players were poor and this needs to be addressed,” he said following the scoreless draw. Although Jason Cummings has eight league goals in eight games, Lennon was quick to signal out his unwillingness to contribute in other areas as a cause for frustration. His other attackers – Grant Holt, Brian Graham, James Keatings and Martin Boyle – were not spared from criticism either.

He has a point. Hibs have so far scored 13 league goals, the same as Raith and Dundee United, and one less than Queens, despite the wealth of forward options. Other than Cummings, the other four have contributed three between them.

Cummings is a source of frustration and has been throughout the Championship years. At his best he’s unplayable; the tributary through which all the best moves flow. At his worst, he’s uninterested and on the margins; reduced to cameo flickers of his ability. Unfortunately for Hibs – and perhaps partly why he’s still there – he too often tends towards the latter.

As for the other four, Keatings has proved himself to be a reasonable deputy at both Hearts and Hibs without ever offering confidence of a prolonged run of goals or games; Grant Holt is capable of playing with his back to goal but has been disappointingly anaemic when facing the other way; while Martin Boyle and Brian Graham have been reduced largely to ineffectual substitute appearances.

It’s not all their fault. Behind the strikers, there has been a surfeit of creativity from the midfield. Hibs have usually ended games with more possession than their opponents, but often it has been meaningless, safe and unthreatening. None of Andrew Shinnie, John McGinn or Fraser Fyvie have been capable of replacing Liam Henderson and providing the guile required to unlock packed defences on a regular basis, while Dylan McGeouch continues to struggle with injuries.

The defence, meanwhile, remain far too susceptible to damaging rickets. In the U.S. Presidential elections, Donald Trump’s personality has often undermined his route to the White House, but it’s yet to completely torpedo it. In a similar way, Hibs’ back four routinely make the path to ultimate victory more difficult, but a fatal blow remains, for now, only a threat.

As for Lennon, hopes were high that he would build on the work started by Stubbs. He not only understands the Scottish game and has proved himself to be an erudite pundit over the past few years, but his reputation here remains high. Since the defeat to Ayr though, the dissenting voices have grown.

Lennon’s summer signing policy seems confused, while the players he brought in don’t yet appear to have improved the side. Holt and Graham were presumably acquired for their aerial prowess, yet Lennon failed to recruit wingers to provide balls from out wide. When the central midfielders are failing to deliver chances into the striker’s feet, the lack of pace out wide has been increasingly obvious. Shinnie, too, has flattered to deceive.

What’s more, his style of management seems at danger of creating ructions within the camp. Stubbs was consistently supportive of his players in public, even when it seemed completely unjustified. Yet, to his credit, he fostered a team spirit strong enough to overcome the many disappointments they suffered and bring back the Scottish Cup in May. Lennon’s more abrasive personality and public displays of dissatisfaction appear to have rubbed some of that spirit away.

In the fall-out of the St. Mirren game, he suggested mentality was the reason for the slump. “It’s definitely a psychological thing, not physical at the minute”, he said, before going to say some of their play was “amateur” and “insipid”.

Part of the reason Lennon’s distinguished himself as a pundit is for his forthright opinions, but they don’t always sit well with his charges. At Bolton, he alienated or fell out with a number of his squad and, if results don’t improve, you suspect a similar scenario at Hibs. Like the English side, confidence is brittle at Easter Road. The bones of a team comfortably beaten – twice – in the race for automatic promotion remain; the scars of those confidence-sapping campaigns are visible under a thin application of make-up.

Hibs now face a fortnight in Fife which will go some way to identifying their title credentials. First Raith and then Dunfermline. Are they champions-in-waiting, or is it going to be third time unlucky? Regardless, the honeymoon period is well and truly over.

 

Written by Andy Harrow


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